Keir Starmer under-estimated his left-wing rival. Now she’s stabbed him in the back and outmaneuvered all her rivals

Angela Rayner has made herself favourite to replace Keir Starmer. (Image: Getty)

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Angela Rayner has played a blinder. She’s made herself the firm favourite to become Labour’s next leader, if and when Keir Starmer is booted out. And she did two things this week that show why – like her or loathe her – she’s one of the smartest people in politics, and why Sir Keir should be very worried.

Of course, plenty of British voters will shudder at the thought of lefty Rayner running the country. All of a sudden, Sir Keir doesn’t look quite so bad. But you have to admire her cunning. It’s been a little over six months since Ms Rayner was forced to resign as Labour’s deputy leader and Deputy Prime Minister, after it emerged she failed to pay enough tax on an £800,000 flat.

Her career could have been finished. But she’s turned her exile from Government to her advantage, making use of the freedom it provides to stick the knife firmly into Sir Keir’s back.

In a speech this week, she made it clear that she thinks the Prime Minister must either change direction radically – which she knows he can’t do – or go.

She warned: “The very survival of the Labour Party is at stake.”

And she said: “We’re running out of time.”

It was a call to arms. She was telling Labour colleagues they can’t just wait until they lose the next election, and then hold a leadership contest. They have to act quickly.

Ms Rayner didn’t mention Sir Keir by name, but she said the problem, to put it crudely, is that the Government is doing a lousy job.

“When the British people voted for us, they voted for change,” she said.

But she warned: “Let’s be honest. The public have the impression we’ve defended the status quo rather than challenged it.”

A speech like this was always going to grab the headlines. However, two things stood out.

The first is that Ms Rayner spent much of the speech attacking the Government’s immigration reforms, championed by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. These changes, which include making it harder for people already in the UK to gain indefinite leave to remain, are hated by many Labour backbenchers.

It’s not just the hard left that is angry. Even many “moderate” Labour MPs are furious with what they see as unfair and retrospective changes. They call it “moving the goalposts” – a phrase used by Ms Rayner in her speech.

Sir Keir is facing a rebellion, and Ms Rayner hasn’t just told the rebels she is on their side. They will take her words as encouragement to keep on making life hard for Sir Keir and Ms Mahmood (whose own chances of becoming leader are rapidly vanishing).

The second clever thing Ms Rayner has done is to form an alliance with Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester Mayor, who might have been a leadership contender himself if his plan to return to Parliament as an MP had not been thwarted.

She delivered her incendiary speech to a Labour group called Mainstream, which is backed by Mr Burnham.

In the speech, she praised Mr Burnham’s achievements in Manchester.

And guess what – the next day, Mr Burnham returned the compliment. He endorsed Angela Rayner’s attack on the immigration reforms and said: “Angela needs to be listened to”.

It means an alternative to Sir Keir is emerging. An alternative leader, an alternative policy platform and perhaps an alternative team, if Mr Burnham and Ms Rayner are prepared to work in Government together.

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Sir Keir Starmer will breathe a huge sigh of relief if the elections on May 7 don’t go as badly as expected. A good result will save his bacon.

But if Labour is crushed in elections for Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and English local councils, desperate Labour MPs will be wondering how to save their party from oblivion. They may just decide to stop talking about removing Sir Keir and start taking action.