BREAKING NEWS: BBC Strictly Come Dancing star dealt crushing news hours before launch show
A supercomputer has run 1,000 simulations of Strictly Come Dancing 2026 — and the results could spell trouble for one celebrity before the competition has even properly begun.
The model, created by British Gambler, has tipped Dani Dyer as the most frequent winner of this year’s series, with the former Love Island star coming out on top in 24.8% of the simulated competitions.
At the opposite end of the predictions is former England footballer Shaun Wright-Phillips.
Despite his long sporting career, Shaun won just 0.1% of the 1,000 simulated series, placing him among the weakest performers in the model and suggesting he could be vulnerable to an early exit.
The prediction is not a guarantee, however, with Strictly notoriously difficult to forecast once professional pairings, choreography and the public vote come into play.
Dani Dyer Emerges as Early Favourite
British Gambler’s model assessed a range of factors including previous performance experience, athletic backgrounds, dance training, entertainment profiles and current betting odds.
Dani emerged as the strongest contestant across the simulations, winning almost one in four of them.
Her previous experience with Strictly is believed to have played a significant role.
Dani was originally due to compete last year and had already begun training with professional dancer Nikita Kuzmin before an ankle fracture forced her to withdraw before the live competition began.
Speaking about returning to the ballroom, Dani said: “I am so excited to be back in the ballroom this September!”
She added: “I just cannot wait to get my dancing shoes back on, and hopefully this time around I can actually make it to week one!”
Dani said she was “over the moon” to finally get another chance at the competition.
Lawrence Robb Also Performs Strongly in Model
Emmerdale star Lawrence Robb emerged as Dani’s closest challenger in the simulations.
He won 17.1% of the 1,000 simulated series, with his previous dance background potentially giving him an advantage as the competition moves into more technically demanding routines.
Lacey Turner also performed strongly in the model, winning 15.6% of simulations.
Olympic skeleton champion Tabby Stoecker followed with 12.4%.
British Gambler spokesperson Alex Kostin said Dani’s previous time training for the programme had given her an unusual advantage over many of her fellow contestants.
“Dani Dyer has already had the Strictly experience that most of this year’s contestants are about to go through, so our supercomputer has given her a significant head start,” Kostin explained.
Although Dani never reached the live competition last year, Kostin said the experience of training with Nikita meant she was not entering the ballroom completely unfamiliar with the process.
He added that her wider competitive experience had also strengthened her profile in the model.
Lawrence Robb Could Be One to Watch
Kostin also highlighted Lawrence as one of the more intriguing names in the line-up.
“Lawrence Robb is the really interesting one,” he said.
“His previous dance training isn’t necessarily something the casual viewer will immediately associate with him, but when you start looking at the different disciplines he’s trained in, it becomes much easier to see why the model has him so high.”
Tabby Stoecker and Cach Mercer were also singled out because of their respective sporting and dance backgrounds.
Kostin said: “Tabby Stoecker and Cach Mercer are the other two who stand out. One has elite sporting experience, and the other already has a genuine passion and background in dance.”
Tough Prediction for Shaun Wright-Phillips
For Shaun Wright-Phillips, the early numbers are far less encouraging.
The former footballer won only 0.1% of the simulations.
That figure does not mean he will definitely leave the competition first, but the model suggests he could face a much harder route than some of the other celebrities.
His extensive athletic background may still prove useful once the competition begins, particularly in terms of fitness, coordination and learning routines.
But according to the model, those strengths were not enough to move him significantly higher in the simulated rankings.
Strictly Remains Difficult to Predict
Kostin stressed that even a detailed statistical model cannot account for everything that makes Strictly Come Dancing unpredictable.
Professional partnerships can make a major difference, while choreography, music choices and public support can dramatically change a contestant’s chances from week to week.
“Strictly is notoriously difficult to predict because the professional pairing, choreography, music, and public vote can completely change the picture,” he said.
“But after 1,000 simulated series, Dani Dyer emerged as the most frequent winner.”
With the 2026 series now getting underway, viewers will soon discover whether the supercomputer’s predictions bear any resemblance to what happens in the ballroom.
For Dani, the simulations offer an encouraging start.
For Shaun Wright-Phillips, however, the numbers suggest he may have plenty to prove once the competition begins.
