Welcome Back: Strictly Come Dancing’s Shaun Wright-Phillips dealt blow hours before launch
Former England footballer Shaun Wright-Phillips has been dealt an early setback ahead of the Strictly Come Dancing 2026 launch after a computer simulation placed him among the least likely contestants to win the series.
The BBC competition returns tonight as this year’s celebrities discover which professional dancers they will be partnered with.
But before Shaun has even stepped onto the ballroom floor, a model produced by British Gambler has suggested he could face a difficult road ahead.
The former footballer won just 0.1% of 1,000 simulated series, according to the analysis.
That does not mean Shaun will actually be the first contestant eliminated, however. The simulation is only a prediction based on selected factors and cannot account for everything that happens once the live competition begins.
Shaun Admits Strictly Is Outside His Comfort Zone
Shaun, who enjoyed a distinguished career in professional football, has made no secret of the fact that competing on Strictly will be a very different challenge.
Speaking about joining the programme, he said: “Dancing is in my blood—but mainly at family events!”
He added: “Strictly is definitely outside my comfort zone, but I’m super excited to get started and really looking forward to the challenge!”
His sporting background could potentially help with fitness, coordination and the demanding rehearsal schedule, but ballroom and Latin dancing will require an entirely new set of skills.
And predictions made before the celebrities have even been paired with their professional partners can change dramatically once audiences see them perform.
Dani Dyer Comes Out on Top in Simulation
At the opposite end of the computer model is Dani Dyer.
The former Love Island winner emerged victorious in 24.8% of the 1,000 simulations, making her the most frequent winner in the analysis.
One factor working in Dani’s favour is her previous experience with Strictly.
She trained with professional dancer Nikita Kuzmin last year before an ankle fracture forced her to withdraw before she could compete in the live shows.
That means she has already experienced some of the training process that most members of the 2026 cast are only now beginning.
British Gambler spokesperson Alex Kostin said: “Dani Dyer has already had the Strictly experience that most of this year’s contestants are about to go through, so our supercomputer has given her a significant head start.”
He stressed that although Dani never made it to the live competition, her training with Nikita means she is not entering the ballroom “completely cold”.
Lawrence Robb Also Scores Highly
Emmerdale actor Lawrence Robb was another celebrity who performed strongly in the simulations.
Lawrence won 17.1% of the computer-generated series, placing him behind Dani but well ahead of several other contestants.
The model highlighted his previous dance experience as a potential advantage once the routines become more technically challenging.
Kostin explained: “Lawrence Robb is the really interesting one.”
He added that viewers may not immediately associate the soap star with dance experience, but said his background across different disciplines helped push him higher in the model.
Tabby Stoecker and Cach Mercer were also highlighted as contestants to watch because of their respective sporting and dance backgrounds.
Strictly Predictions Can Quickly Change
Despite the numbers, the company behind the simulation acknowledged that predicting Strictly Come Dancing is particularly difficult.
A celebrity’s professional partner, choreography and choice of music can all influence their progress.
Perhaps most importantly, viewers ultimately decide who stays in the competition through the public vote.
Kostin admitted: “Strictly is notoriously difficult to predict because the professional pairing, choreography, music, and public vote can completely change the picture.”
That uncertainty means Shaun’s low result should not be treated as a forecast of what will definitely happen.
Previous sporting ability, acting experience or dance training may provide advantages, but contestants can also surprise viewers once the competition gets underway.
For Shaun, the real test will begin when he discovers his professional partner and starts tackling his first routines.
The numbers may currently look bleak, but with the ballroom yet to open properly, his Strictly story has only just begun.
